all

Allstate Corp. (NYSE: ALL) has selected former American International Group (NYSE: AIG) executive Matthew Winter to head its struggling life insurance and retirement unit, Allstate Financial.

Allstate Financial returned to profitability in the three months ended June 30 after losing money each quarter since September 2007. The unit has been run by an interim president since January. The ongoing delays had prompted some Wall Street analysts to call on Allstate to sell its small life unit, which was largely responsible for investment losses that led Allstate to post a big loss last year.

This was one of those days where profit takers had the markets soft all morning, but strong pending home sales rallied the stock market and trumped an inverted spending and income figure. A revision for a lower hurricane season helped insurers.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,315.51 +28.95 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,004.86 +2.23 (0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,008.80 +0.19 (0.01%)

Top Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades

6 Stocks to Lead a Value Comeback
When cheap shares stop trailing, these names will do well. The include Kodak, Allstate, Meredith, JC Penney, MeadWestvaco and Whirlpool.
http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Stocks/6-Stocks-To-Lead-a-Value-Comeback/

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) posted a loss of $5.9 billion, or $2.46 per share, in the fourth quarter, but it said that it still has no plans to seek federal aid unless economic conditions worsen. Ford burned through $5.5 billion in cash during the quarter. Excluding one-time items, Ford lost $1.37 per share, below estimates of a loss of $1.30 per share. Revenue fell to $29.2 billion, down from $45.5 billion for the fourth quarter of 2007. Ford's shares are gaining nearly 2.5% in premarket trading. Fifteen minutes after the open, Ford shares were 2.2% lower.

Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) reported worse-than-expected quarterly results late Wednesday after the close, as its quarterly profit dropped 69%. It also also announced 6,700 more job cuts and plans to close 300 stores. As the company has been hurt by tighter consumer spending, it said it will not provide any sales or earnings guidance. SBUX shares are defclining over 4% in premarket trading. Fifteen minutes after the open, SBUX shares were flattish.

As the U.S. market wraps up a wild day in which central banks cut rates in unison, one sector has no doubt at all about where it wants to go -- down. Three leading insurance companies have lost as much as a 28% of their stock market value in today's trading alone. How so? As I posted, insurers are the next part of the financial foundation to crumble due to mortgage-backed securities (MBS) gone sour.

Here's the latest insurance industry carnage:

• XL Capital (NYSE: XL) -28%. The property-casualty insurer holds $29 billion in asset-backed securities such as MBSs and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), 330% of its shareholders' equity.
• Met Life (NYSE: MET) -27%. This life insurer announced plans to sell 75 million shares and to fire an unspecified number of employees. It also expects to earn between 83 cents and 93 cents per share -- way below analysts' $1.44 forecast.
• The Allstate Corp. (NYSE: ALL) -21%. This property-casualty insurer holds $83 billion in fixed income securities such as MBSs, 421% of its shareholders' equity -- and the $22 billion in Level 3 -- difficult to value -- fixed income securities exceed its $19.7 billion in capital.

I expect this problem to affect every insurance company to some extent. Will the $810 billion rescue plan relieve these institutions of their bad investment decisions? We might know in a year. Until then, look out below.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

Allstate (NYSE: ALL - option chain) shares are rising today as early reports are showing that the damage from Hurricane Ike over the weekend was not as bad as feared. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ALL.

ALL opened this morning at $44.55. So far today the stock has hit a low of $44.21 and a high of $46.95. As of 12:15, ALL is trading at $45.98, up 75 cents(1.7%). The chart for ALL looks neutral and S&P gives ALL a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $42.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in just five weeks as long as ALL is above $42.50 at October expiration. Allstate would have to fall by more than 7% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

ALL hasn't been below $42.50 at all in the past year and has shown support around $45 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in ALL.

In the News:
Fewer Miles, Accidents, Claims
Auto insurance companies may be one of the few in financial services to benefit from rising gasoline prices. Fewer fender benders are occurring as people drive less.
Auto Insurers Benefit as High Gas Prices Make People Drive Less - MarketWatch

World's Largest Owner of Shopping Malls on Hot Seat
A Senate report released last week alleges the owner's of Westfield malls; father (Frank Lowy) and son (Peter Lowy) used bank accounts in Liechtenstein to hide money from Uncle Sam as well as the Australian government. The Lowy family denies any wrongdoing and will have the chance to make its case in person this week, as Peter Lowy is scheduled to appear before a Senate investigations subcommittee today.
Westfield Unhurt by Lowy Tax Woes - BusinessWeek

Bernstein downgraded Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) to "market perform" from "outperform" according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Citigroup initiated Southern Cooper (NYSE: PCU) with a "sell".

Banc of America Securities said that Allstate (NYSE: ALL) may miss first quarter earnings due to payments for storm damages according to the AP.

Clear Channel (NYSE: CCU) cut to "hold" at Stanford Research according to 24/7 Wall St. The website also reports that Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY) cut to "sell" at Piper Jaffray

The Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) shares are trading higher today after a Bernstein analyst upgraded the stock to "Outperform" from "Market Perform." If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ALL.

After hitting a one-year high of $63.73 in May, the stock hit a one-year low of $44.56 last week. ALL opened this morning at $49.45. So far today the stock has hit a low of $47.92 and a high of $49.46. As of 1:40, ALL is trading at $48.23, up $0.62 (1.3%). The chart for ALL looks neutral but improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in just 3 weeks as long as ALL is above $45 at April expiration. Allstate would have to fall by more than 6% before we would start to lose money.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cott Corp, Hartford Financial, Allstate and Valero Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Lehman upgraded Cott Corp (NYSE: COT) to Equal Weight from Underweight citing recent management changes, a focus on CSD business, and new product discipline.
  
• Bernstein believes the entire non-life insurance group is oversold and that it is time to buy; the firm upgraded Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG) and Allstate (NYSE: ALL) to Outperform from Market Perform.
  
• Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) was raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank on valuation with the stock trading at a -30% discount to NAV while the asset market for U.S. refineries is strong.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Goldman added Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) to its Conviction Buy List.
  
• RBC Capital upgraded BJ Services (NYSE: BJS), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) and Patterson-UTI Energy (NASDAQ: PTEN) to Outperform from Sector Perform.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded the Semiconductor Capital Equipment sector to Overweight from Market Weight.

Allstate Corp. (NYSE: ALL) stock is declining this morning after competitor Loews Corp. (NYSE: LTR) reported a fourth-quarter profit, excluding investments, of 81 cents per share, 26 cents below analysts' forecast of $1.07 per share. LTR blamed the disappointing earnings on a 50 percent decline in profit at its CNA Financial Corp (CNA) insurance affiliate, which could be a bad sign for ALL. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on ALL.

After hitting a one-year high of $63.73 in May, the stock has hit a new one-year low today. This morning, ALL opened at $46.56. So far today the stock has hit a low of $45.30 and a high of $46.60. As of 11:05, ALL is trading at $45.89, down 68 cents (-1.5%). The chart for ALL looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: UBS AG, Commerzbank , Trico Marine Services, Optimal Group and Mediacom were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• JP Morgan upgraded shares of UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) to Overweight from Neutral on valuation, as they believe the risk/reward is now attractive.
• Commerzbank AG (OTC: CRZBY) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley, as they believe the company has eliminated much of the uncertainty on asset quality.
• Jefferies upgraded shares of Trico Marine Services Inc (NASDAQ: TRMA) to Buy from Hold and raised their target to $46 from $40 to reflect the growth potential brought on by the company's purchase of Active Subsea ASA.
• B. Riley raised its rating on Optimal Group Inc (NASDAQ: OPMR) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the company's proven management team, acquisition of WowWee and strong balance sheet.
• Citigroup upgraded shares of Mediacom Communications Corporation (NASDAQ: MCCC) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent pullback, as they now think the stock is oversold. Citigroup thinks Mediacom will generate free cash in 2008 and they like the pace of buybacks.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Citigroup upgraded shares of The Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) to Buy from Hold.
• UBS upgraded UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE: UNH) and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Wachovia raised Performance Food Group Company (NASDAQ: PFGC) to Outperform from Market Perform.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: REITs, Business Objects, Allstate Corp and P&C Insurance were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Deutsche Bank downgraded REITs AvalonBay (NYSE: AVB), Boston Properties (NYSE: BXP), Health Care REIT (NYSE: HCN), Kimco (NYSE: KIM) and Public Storage (NYSE: PSA) to Hold from Buy on valuation following the recent share appreciation.
  
• Business Objects (NASDAQ: BOBJ) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird following its acquisition by SAP AG (NYSE: SAP).
  
• Wachovia downgraded Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) to Market Perform from Outperform and P&C Insurance (NYSE: PGR) citing deteriorating fundamentals in personal lines.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• UBS downgraded BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• JP Morgan downgraded Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) to Neutral from Outperform.
  
• Sealy Corporation (NYSE: ZZ) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America.
  
• Friedman Billings downgraded technology stocks, lowering ASE Test Limited (NASDAQ: ASTSF), ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML), KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) and Rudolph Technologies (NASDAQ: RTEC) to Market Perform from Outperform.

For a sport that just a few years ago was the darling of the blue-chippers, NASCAR has suddenly found love as hard to come by as a meth-addled octogenarian. After Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) dropped its 25-year long title sponsorship of the race promoter's second-tier series, Subway seemed a lock to take it on.

Now comes news that the restaurant's ardor for the series has cooled, and NASCAR has been forced to revisit formerly spurned suitors such as KFC (NYSE: YUM), Allstate (NYSE: ALL) and Dunkin' Donuts (D'OH!).

Along with the decline in interest has come a drop in price. The value of the sponsorship, once thought to run $30 million a year, has been halved. NASCAR is not the only loser in that drop; the original price included a mandatory ESPN ad buy of around $10 million, a requirement that has been relaxed.

According to Michael Smith in the Sporting News, Subway balked at the lack of exclusivity, a constant source of tension in the race industry where teams, tracks, OEMs and suppliers are also hustling sponsorships for every nut, bolt and beer cozy in the paddock.

NASCAR fans skew 60-40% male, slightly above the U.S. average in the 35-44 year of age category. They are overrepresented in the lower income categories, which would dampen the interest of luxury product companies. One interesting statistic is its popularity among America's fastest growing minority -- Hispanic fans have grown from 3.6% to 8.6% in only a few years. So how about the Taco Bell series? Or The Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) 500?

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Websence (WBSN), RF Micro Devices (RFMD), Fiserv (FISV), Qwest (Q), and OSI Pharma (OSIP) were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• JP Morgan upgraded shares of Websence (NASDAQ: WBSN) to Overweight from Underweight ahead of the renewal period starting in the December quarter and expects this momentum to drive shares higher.

• RF Micro Devices (NASDAQ: RFMD) was raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup, who said the Sirenza Microdevices (SMDI) deal gives the company its first real prospect for gross margin expansion in years.

• Matrix USA upgraded Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV) to Buy from Sell, and expects the company to benefit from the Checkfree (CKFR) acquisition.

• Lehman upgraded shares of Qwest (NYSE: Q) to Overweight from Equal Weight, citing the hiring of industry veteran Ed Mueller as CEO. The firm believes the new CEO removes an overhang and could lead to a change in strategic direction and significantly increase capital spending.

• JP Morgan upgraded OSI Pharma (NASDAQ: OSIP) to Overweight from Underweight based on valuation and upcoming catalysts for Tarceva that should be seen in the next year...

OTHER UPGRADES:

• UBS upgraded Allstate (NYSE: ALL) to Neutral from Sell.

• ThinkEquity raised Hansen Medical (NASDAQ: HNSN) to Buy from Accumulate.

• Stanford upgraded Leap Wireless (NASDAQ: LEAP) to Buy from Hold.

• FTN Midwest upgraded shares of Lexmark (NYSE: LXK) to Neutral from Sell.

• Hambrecht upgraded NetGear (NASDAQ: NTGR) to Buy from Hold.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).