Bernstein downgraded Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) to "market perform" from "outperform" according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that Citigroup initiated Southern Cooper (NYSE: PCU) with a "sell".
Banc of America Securities said that Allstate (NYSE: ALL) may miss first quarter earnings due to payments for storm damages according to the AP.
After hitting a one-year high of $63.73 in May, the stock hit a one-year low of $44.56 last week. ALL opened this morning at $49.45. So far today the stock has hit a low of $47.92 and a high of $49.46. As of 1:40, ALL is trading at $48.23, up $0.62 (1.3%). The chart for ALL looks neutral but improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in just 3 weeks as long as ALL is above $45 at April expiration. Allstate would have to fall by more than 6% before we would start to lose money.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cott Corp, Hartford Financial, Allstate and Valero Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Lehman upgraded Cott Corp (NYSE: COT) to Equal Weight from Underweight citing recent management changes, a focus on CSD business, and new product discipline.
Bernstein believes the entire non-life insurance group is oversold and that it is time to buy; the firm upgraded Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG) and Allstate (NYSE: ALL) to Outperform from Market Perform.
Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) was raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank on valuation with the stock trading at a -30% discount to NAV while the asset market for U.S. refineries is strong.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman added Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) to its Conviction Buy List.
Allstate Corp. (NYSE: ALL) stock is declining this morning after competitor Loews Corp. (NYSE: LTR) reported a fourth-quarter profit, excluding investments, of 81 cents per share, 26 cents below analysts' forecast of $1.07 per share. LTR blamed the disappointing earnings on a 50 percent decline in profit at its CNA Financial Corp (CNA) insurance affiliate, which could be a bad sign for ALL. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on ALL.
After hitting a one-year high of $63.73 in May, the stock has hit a new one-year low today. This morning, ALL opened at $46.56. So far today the stock has hit a low of $45.30 and a high of $46.60. As of 11:05, ALL is trading at $45.89, down 68 cents (-1.5%). The chart for ALL looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: UBS AG, Commerzbank , Trico Marine Services, Optimal Group and Mediacom were today's noteworthy upgrades:
JP Morgan upgraded shares of UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) to Overweight from Neutral on valuation, as they believe the risk/reward is now attractive.
Commerzbank AG (OTC: CRZBY) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley, as they believe the company has eliminated much of the uncertainty on asset quality.
Jefferies upgraded shares of Trico Marine Services Inc (NASDAQ: TRMA) to Buy from Hold and raised their target to $46 from $40 to reflect the growth potential brought on by the company's purchase of Active Subsea ASA.
B. Riley raised its rating on Optimal Group Inc (NASDAQ: OPMR) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the company's proven management team, acquisition of WowWee and strong balance sheet.
Citigroup upgraded shares of Mediacom Communications Corporation (NASDAQ: MCCC) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent pullback, as they now think the stock is oversold. Citigroup thinks Mediacom will generate free cash in 2008 and they like the pace of buybacks.
Business Objects (NASDAQ: BOBJ) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird following its acquisition by SAP AG (NYSE: SAP).
Wachovia downgraded Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) to Market Perform from Outperform and P&C Insurance (NYSE: PGR) citing deteriorating fundamentals in personal lines.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
UBS downgraded BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) to Neutral from Buy.
JP Morgan downgraded Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) to Neutral from Outperform.
Sealy Corporation (NYSE: ZZ) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America.
For a sport that just a few years ago was the darling of the blue-chippers, NASCAR has suddenly found love as hard to come by as a meth-addled octogenarian. After Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) dropped its 25-year long title sponsorship of the race promoter's second-tier series, Subway seemed a lock to take it on.
Now comes news that the restaurant's ardor for the series has cooled, and NASCAR has been forced to revisit formerly spurned suitors such as KFC (NYSE: YUM), Allstate (NYSE: ALL) and Dunkin' Donuts (D'OH!).
Along with the decline in interest has come a drop in price. The value of the sponsorship, once thought to run $30 million a year, has been halved. NASCAR is not the only loser in that drop; the original price included a mandatory ESPN ad buy of around $10 million, a requirement that has been relaxed.
According to Michael Smith in the Sporting News, Subway balked at the lack of exclusivity, a constant source of tension in the race industry where teams, tracks, OEMs and suppliers are also hustling sponsorships for every nut, bolt and beer cozy in the paddock.
NASCAR fans skew 60-40% male, slightly above the U.S. average in the 35-44 year of age category. They are overrepresented in the lower income categories, which would dampen the interest of luxury product companies. One interesting statistic is its popularity among America's fastest growing minority -- Hispanic fans have grown from 3.6% to 8.6% in only a few years. So how about the Taco Bell series? Or The Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) 500?
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Websence (WBSN), RF Micro Devices (RFMD), Fiserv (FISV), Qwest (Q), and OSI Pharma (OSIP) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
JP Morgan upgraded shares of Websence (NASDAQ: WBSN) to Overweight from Underweight ahead of the renewal period starting in the December quarter and expects this momentum to drive shares higher.
RF Micro Devices (NASDAQ: RFMD) was raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup, who said the Sirenza Microdevices (SMDI) deal gives the company its first real prospect for gross margin expansion in years.
Matrix USA upgraded Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV) to Buy from Sell, and expects the company to benefit from the Checkfree (CKFR) acquisition.
Lehman upgraded shares of Qwest (NYSE: Q) to Overweight from Equal Weight, citing the hiring of industry veteran Ed Mueller as CEO. The firm believes the new CEO removes an overhang and could lead to a change in strategic direction and significantly increase capital spending.
JP Morgan upgraded OSI Pharma (NASDAQ: OSIP) to Overweight from Underweight based on valuation and upcoming catalysts for Tarceva that should be seen in the next year...
OTHER UPGRADES:
UBS upgraded Allstate (NYSE: ALL) to Neutral from Sell.
Allstate Corp. (NYSE: ALL) opened at $60.40. So far today the stock has hit a low of $59.00 and a high of $60.49. As of 11:00 this morning, ALL is trading at $59.67, down $0.89 (-1.5%).
After hitting a one year high of $66.14 in December, the stock has been trading slightly lower over the past six months, with support just below $60. The stock is testing that support today, as shares fall in the wake of a weaker-than-expected earnings report. The company reported earnings per share of $1.76, a tick below the $1.80 expected by Wall Street analysts, citing declining homeowner premiums for the fall. Technical indicators for ALL are bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a very positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $65 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk and leverage returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in just 3 months as long as ALL is below $65 at October expiration. ALL would have to rise by 8% before we would start to lose money.
ALL has never been above $65 except for a few days in December and has shown resistance around $62 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings turn out to be better than they seem after closer study, but even if that happens, this stock could have trouble getting over $64, where it topped out in April and May.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in ALL.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: RadioShack Corp (RSH), Visual Sciences (VSCN), Alcan (AL), U.S. Celluar (USM) and Westwood One (WON) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Banc of America downgraded shares of RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) to Sell from Neutral and lowered their target to $18 from $26 as they believe cuts to labor costs and advertising expenses will make it more difficult to overcome declining wireless trends.
Friedman Billings cut Visual Sciences (NASDAQ: VSCN) to Market Perform from Outperform on valuation. Citigroup downgraded Alcan to Hold from buy on the acquisition news.
Soleil cut U.S. Celluar (AMEX: USM) to Sell from Hold on valuation.
Westwood One (NYSE: WON) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup based on management distractions and weak fundamentals...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Cowen removed ImClone Systems (NASDAQ: IMCL) from its Focus List, as the firm believes Erbitux is now more in line with consensus but said financials remain uninspiring.
America is a "sue-happy" country. Where else can you sue the dry cleaners for $54 million because they lost your Hickey Freeman pants. You think I am joking; but this is a case of life being stranger than fiction. A Washington DC judge (who in my opinion should know better) is suing a dry cleaners that lost his pair of pants.
For a moment last week my trust in the American legal system began to fail as Paris Hilton, heiress of Hilton Hotels (NYSE: HLT) fortune, spent a heart-wrenching three days in jail before being released by the sheriff for "medical reasons." Then suddenly my faith was restored as the judge sent her back to jail.
Well it didn't last long. It seems this week a pair of lost pants is worth crying over -- and $54 million. I guess America is land of the free and home of too many lawyers. Maybe this is why I respect Vice President Cheney: I mean, we all talk about the problem with lawyers, but at least he shot one.
When Warren Buffett announced he wanted to use between $40 and $60 billion to buy a company several days ago, picking a target for the billionairest of all billionaires became the favorite pastime of financial writers everywhere -- and our bloggers were as eager as anyone else to come up with just the thing for the guy who already has everything (and everything, in this case, includes bunches of shares of companies as diverse as dull sheetrock manufacturerUSG Corp. (NYSE: USG) to hip shoe companyNike Inc. (NYSE: NKE)).
Of course, Buffett's needs are unique. First of all, the company has to be both big and a good value -- no 80x P/E multiples for Warren. It has to be a relatively simple business (I'm thinking nanotech is out), have a good management team and no dark and dirty secrets (so sub-prime lenders are probably off the list). Finally, the company should have solid, long-term competitive advantages.
Sheldon Liber suggests a couple that might make the grade: Allstate Corp. (NYSE: ALL), the insurance company, which at about $38 billion in market capitalization and a 7.8x P/E ratio fits both the "big" and "cheap" qualifiers. Plus, we all know that Warren Buffett loves insurance companies, and given its retail approach, it's not much of a competitor with longterm portfolio company GEICO. Emerson Electric (NYSE: EMR) also seems a good candidate with its $37 billion market cap and 19x P/E ratio -- but is it simple enough? Its business is, according to Hoover's, making "a host of electrical, electromechanical, and electronic products, many of which are used to control gases, liquids, and electricity." Hmmm.
When Gary Sattler suggests Warren might buy General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE)'s plastics division, it's a good concept (simple, well-managed) but the price is way too low at around $10-12 billion. A commenter, however, brings up a good replacement in Lowe's Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW); it has a $47 billion market cap and a reasonable P/E ratio of 15.5x. What's more, it has none of the bad-management baggage of competitor Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD). Does it have a "moat," though? I suppose that's a question for Warren. He does own some of each company, meaning that he's already emotionally invested in the sector (a plus) although it's obvious from our near-tie in the Battle of the Brands that neither holds a substantial consumer-facing edge competitively.
If you are an Allstate Corp. (NYSE: ALL) customer in California for homeowners' insurance, you have a new reason to hate insurance companies. The company is going to halt new homeowners and landlord package insurance policies in the state.
Here is the quote from the company: "Allstate is taking responsible action now so that the company will continue to be in a strong position to help protect customers in California and across the country. This new strategy helps protect our existing customers and provides an alternative to California consumers looking for new property insurance policies."
TRANSLATION: We don't want the risks of mudslides, earthquakes, brushfires and replacing drastically overpriced house values.
Animal House Meets the Empty Nest Home developers across the country are appealing to young buyers with buildings that promise not just an affordable first home but also a great social life. But some of the buildings are drawing older buyers, and it's leading to conflicts. Showdown at the Pool - WSJ.com
10 Things I Hate About My Finances... ...And 10 ways to get them out of the way in a snap. When it comes to finances, there's no shortage of tasks you dread -- and blow off. There's the paperwork, paying taxes, corralling piles of receipts, shelling out for insurance you hope you never have to use, avoiding your mother-in-law's phone calls, and on and on. But the ignoring the niggling details is even worse than the drudgery of getting them done. Here's how to handle them with as little pain as possible. 10 Things I Hate About Finances - [Fool.com]
The Poverty Business In recent years, a range of businesses have made financing more readily available to even the riskiest of borrowers. Greater access to credit has put cars, computers, credit cards, and even homes within reach for many more of the working poor. But this remaking of the marketplace for low-income consumers has a dark side: Innovative and zealous firms have lured unsophisticated shoppers by the hundreds of thousands into a thicket of debt from which many never emerge. The Poverty Business - BusinessWeek Cover Story
Saving Strategies for the Over-50 Crowd With retirement suddenly looming uncomfortably close, people who reach their 50s without much of a nest egg may feel financially challenged to the point where they may give up even trying to save. It's not time to give up, but gear up. Federal tax rules give 50-somethings a chance to catch up on savings. Saving strategies for the over-50 crowd - Bankrate.com
Paints and Stains - Look Beyond the Brand Before you do that next big paint job take a look at Consumer Reports latest review. And if you've been on the fence about whether to paint your house or stain it, their findings are likely to nudge you toward paint. Get advice on how to choose, how to pick a good painter and six common painting mistakes to avoid. ConsumerReports.org - Paints & stains 6/07: Types, Choosing a painter 6 Common Mistakes to Avoid
Most Expensive TVs If you want to impress your neighbors with your TV, you're going to have to try harder these days--one out of every four homes in the U.S. now boasts a thin, gleaming, high-definition television. But how many people on your block own a $70,000, 103-inch Panasonic plasma? The Most Expensive TVs - Forbes.com
Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) has been doing some big time cogitating about the future. He plans to donate the lion's share of his wealth to the Gates Foundation. Recently, he said he was looking for an understudy with the right investing temperament and wisdom to lead Berkshire. There are reports that his office has been swamped with resumes. Some are reaching to the bottom of the barrel in suggesting that I seek an audience. Perhaps they were stimulated by another Serious Money: Freight Railroads - BNI, CSX, UNP & more story which I posted the day before Berkshire Hathaway announced it had become BNI's largest shareholder.
So with this and other prescient commentary I recently posted, I was asked to present some ideas on what acquisitions Berkshire might consider given Buffett's eagerness to find a good deal. It is likely that Buffett will bring several people on board to play the role of Chief Investment Officer for different segments of the company. Nobody in their right mind believes that Buffett is replaceable.
In any event here are some of my ideas on the subject. All of my ideas follow a pattern favored by Buffett including low P/E, P/S, P/B, and P/CF's, as well as a high return on equity and low debt.
.gif){kind=logo}
.gif){kind=logo}
.gif){kind=logo}
For a sport that just a few years ago was the darling of the blue-chippers, NASCAR has suddenly found love as hard to come by as a meth-addled octogenarian. After 
When Warren Buffett 
Just how high will U.S. gasoline prices rise?
Nordstrom and Kohl's post smaller-than-expected Q1 profit declines
Oil hits record $127.43 on supply concerns, raised Goldman forecast
